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Jan's avatar

Correction: by the end of this century , China’s population will have shrunk to about 730 million while Nigeria’s will have risen to about 791 million.

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Jan's avatar

When I first noticed ‘Be fruitful and multiply’ I hoped that this was to do with the very low fertility rate in the West which for a number of reasons also includes Japan, and South Korea which at 0.9 has the lowest birth rates on the planet. In order to reproduce itself, a country must have a fertility rate of 2.1. The countries with the highest are, depending on the chart you use are Niger. Somalia, Mail, Chad with 6+ children per female. Europe, Australia, the UK etc fall below 2. Most are about 1.6. Except that in the West, the Muslim fertility rate hovers around 2. Meaning that non/Muslims are producing fewer than 1.6. So, some groups will become smaller and smaller until they disappear. I think of Burma where the rate is 2.2. If they don’t maintain it, the ethnic Burmese will eventually disappear, and China which shares a border with them will most likely fill the void and for the first time be able to have ports and beaches in the tropics.

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